Innovate Mind LabsExperimental division
LIVE ALPHAB2C Lab 03 · Probability & decision transparency

What casino mechanics actually imply — run it 100,000 times.

Pick a bankroll, a bet, and a betting system. We simulate tens of thousands of full sessions and show you the real distribution of outcomes — risk of ruin, variance, drawdowns and expected result. This is an educational transparency tool. It will not help you beat a casino, because the maths says you can't; it will show you exactly why.

went broke (risk of ruin)
hit stop-win target
median final bankroll
average result (expected value)
ended in profit
worst session
avg total wagered
expected house-edge cost
median longest losing streak
Set a scenario and press Run simulation. The default — €500 bankroll, €10 flat bets, 500 European rounds — is loaded and ready.

Distribution of final bankroll

Where players actually ended up, across every simulated session. The dashed line is your starting bankroll.

Survival curve

Share of players still solvent as the session goes on.

The reality, in three lessons

The edge is fixed

Every even-money spin pays as if there were no zero, but the zero(s) mean the wheel keeps 2.70% (European) or 5.26% (American) of everything wagered, forever. Over a session you wager many times your bankroll — so the edge compounds against you.

Martingale trades many small wins for one ruin

Doubling after losses wins often — until a losing streak you couldn't cover wipes you out. It doesn't reduce long-run risk; it concentrates it into rare catastrophic losses. The distribution shows the fat left tail.

Past spins don't remember

A wheel has no memory: after ten reds, black is still 48.6%. Systems that "recover losses" assume the opposite. The simulation makes no such assumption — and neither does the wheel.

Not gambling advice. This tool models simple even-money bets to illustrate probability. Real games vary; the house edge is always against the player over time. If gambling stops being fun, support is available (e.g. BeGambleAware, GamCare).